By Fred Harrison
Utilizing the uk as a case research, this well-researched account exhibits how, for greater than 2 hundred years, a remarkably commonplace 18-year cycle of growth and bust should be traced to the peaks and troughs in land costs.
This exploration finds how governments, in the course of the upswing of the cycle, are complicit in encouraging a trust that estate costs will proceed upwards indefinitely as a result of their expert administration of the economic climate and attributes the present crises to public coverage on either side of the Atlantic.
An alternative plan to neutralize the subsequent boom—one that might result in a extra solid and environmentally pleasant economic climate with a extra equitable distribution of wealth—is additionally presented.
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Additional info for Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010
The experts were of little help to those consumers who tried to make rational decisions about how much debt they could carry, and for how long. We summarise the prognoses offered by a selection of analysts in Table 1:3. These were published in April and May 2004. They provide a snapshot of the assessments offered to people who needed information on when to buy and sell their homes. The range of views is bewildering. They were expressed by financial institutions that influence public policies and economists whose expertise shapes the behaviour of the public.
That, especially when we are concerned with the impact of the housing market on people’s lives, creates analytical problems. For land is the key piece of the jigsaw that is the complex economy. We begin our search for causes by considering the favourite explanation: the planning system. Imperfections in the way decisions are made about land use are held to be responsible for the shortfall of affordable homes, leading to the boom in prices. This is the explanation favoured by the construction industry.
Too little, too late. There was now no time left to distract Britain from its historic date with the Depression of 2010. Or had 400 years worth of economic history been dumped with the dawning of the third millennium? In The Power in the Land, I reviewed that historical evidence in detail for four countries: the USA, Japan, UK and Australia. The results were published in 1983. I was drawn to a chilling prediction: if the patterns of history were to repeat themselves, the global economy that had recovered from the slump of 1974 would survive for 18 years before ‘tail-spinning into yet another deep-seated depression of 16 even greater magnitude’.