By Dr. Marcus Kappler, Dipl.Oec. Andreas Sachs (auth.), Marcus Kappler, Andreas Sachs (eds.)
This publication deals the reader a cutting-edge evaluate on concept and empirics of commercial cycle synchronisation, structural reform and monetary integration. concentrating on the continuing integration strategy within the euro sector and the european, it analyses the mixing approach that has taken position because the Nineteen Eighties and that's marked by means of the appearance of the euro and the giant growth that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
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Extra info for Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration: New Evidence from the EU
To obtain some degree of robustness in our results we include both growth rates and de-trended variables based on the HP filter in the analysis. Figure 9 shows for all countries the output gap and GDP growth rate. In most cases both measures of the business cycle seem comparatively similar, such that we can expect our results to be somewhat robust. One important aspect that we analyse first is whether business cycle volatility has changed. In recent studies, several authors have found that business cycle volatility has tended to decline since the mid-1990s.
In practice, O values of 1600 for quarterly data and of 100 for annual data have become established. In our calculations we use these standard parameters. Also considered is a symmetric moving average (MA) for estimating a smooth trend component of the underlying series. The estimate of the cycle is the difference between the observations and the MA, which in our study is also set to 12 quarters and 36 months, for quarterly and monthly data, respectively. The MA has the distinct advantage of being simple to compute and highly transparent.
It is possible that there are links between regional and global business cycle volatility and synchronisation: growing trade and financial integration of economies synchronises the effects of global shocks via cross-country output spillovers. Asymmetric shocks are partly absorbed by trade spillovers and more strongly shared globally in the case of higher integration. Thus, global integration is likely to contribute to lower volatility and higher synchronisation of business cycles on average. The IMF (2007) finds that trade integration has contributed positively to the observed decline of business cycle volatility for a sample of 78 countries during the period from 1970 to 2005.