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CATASTROPHE MODELING: A NEW APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK by Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther

By Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther

Based at the study that has been carried out at Wharton danger administration Center over the prior 5 years on catastrophic risk.

Covers a scorching subject within the gentle of contemporary terroristic actions and nature catastrophes.

Develops probability administration options for lowering and spreading the losses from destiny disasters.

Provides word list of definitions and phrases used in the course of the book.

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Additional resources for CATASTROPHE MODELING: A NEW APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK

Example text

A good example of such legislation is California’s Proposition 127. Passed in November of 1990, the law states that seismic retrofits to property completed on or after January 1, 1991, and completed on or before July 1, 2000, will not increase the property tax for a 15 homeowner until ownership changes. The state concluded that these improvements constitute such a significant reduction in the risks to life and safety, that they should be exempt from additional property tax. Local Level At the local level, communities enforce building codes and have developed economic incentives, such as tax relief, for those who retrofit.

By the 1970’s, studies theorizing on the source and frequency of events were published. S. Water Resources Council publication on flood hazard (USWRC, 1967), the Algermissen study on earthquake risk (Algermissen, 1969) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) hurricane forecasts (Neumann, 1972). S. researchers to compile hazard and loss studies, estimating the impact of earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and other natural disasters. Notable compilations include Brinkmann’s summary of hurricane hazards in the United States (1975) and Steinbrugge’s anthology of losses from earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis (1982).

Indirect losses include business interruption impacts and relocation costs of residents forced to evacuate their homes. Proprietary models include the ability to analyze insurance policies, so that the loss can be properly allocated. More details on these elements of a catastrophe model are provided in Chapter 3. 3 Uses of a Catastrophe Model for Risk Management A catastrophe model is employed to assess catastrophe risk and improve risk management decisions. But how is this accomplished? Briefly, the model output is quantified and presented in a way that is useful to the stakeholder.

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