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Modelling our Future, Volume 15: Population Ageing, Social by Ann Harding, Anil K. Gupta

By Ann Harding, Anil K. Gupta

The individuals offer a couple of fascinating and worthy analyses on simulating public spending and tax sales within the face of demographic adjustments in society. it may be required analyzing for someone operating during this box, in addition to for coverage makers drawn to figuring out how growing old in society will have an effect on public funds.

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Extra resources for Modelling our Future, Volume 15: Population Ageing, Social Security and Taxation (International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics) (International ... in Economic Theory and Econometrics)

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This chapter combines the population estimates arising from the Australian Intergenerational Report with use of the concessions model — and concludes that the number of concession card holders is likely to increase by 20 per cent more than the rate of population growth between 2003 and 2050. The authors note that other possible policy changes that are on the agenda would generate fiscal impacts of a similar magnitude to that expected from population ageing. While the authors conclude that real per capita spending will decline over the next 50 years, because the unindexed ‘cap’ on water and rates concessions will result in an erosion of their real value with inflation, the State government has since increased the cap and announced that it will be indexed — thus generating significant fiscal consequences for the future.

Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, 4(2). O’Hare, J. (2000). TRIM3, in Gupta, A. and Kapur, V. (eds), Microsimulation in Government Policy and Forecasting, North-Holland, Amsterdam. Orcutt, G. (1957). A New Type of Socio-economic System. Review of Economics and Statistics, 58(2), 773–797. , Smith, J. and Zedlewski, S. (1976). Policy Exploration through Microanalytic Simulation. The Urban Institute, Washington, DC. Pedersen, T. (2000). Distributional Outcomes of the Danish Welfare System, in Gupta, A.

Dynamic cohort models use exactly the same type of ageing procedures, but usually age only one cohort rather than the many cohorts represented in an entire population. Typically, one cohort is aged from birth to death, so that the entire lifecycle is simulated. For some applications, such models are more cost-efficient than ageing an entire population. Such models have been used to analyse lifetime income distribution and redistribution, lifetime rates of return to education, and repayment patterns for student incomecontingent loans (Hain and Helberger, 1986; Harding, 1993a, 1993b, 1995; Falkingham and Hills, 1995; Falkingham and Harding, 1996; Baldini, 2001).

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