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Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea by Paul B. Stares

By Paul B. Stares

It possesses nuclear guns and missiles to carry them, and regardless of a few development, it truly is on no account transparent that the continuing six-party talks may be capable of demonstrate the total quantity of the rustic s nuclear actions, less convince Pyongyang to offer them up. the us keeps tens of millions of forces at the Korean peninsula in aid of its commitments to the Republic of Korea (South Korea), a rustic with which the North remains to be technically at conflict. And the peninsula sits in a strategically important quarter, the place the USA, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea all have very important pursuits at stake. All of this places a top rate on shut realization to and information of advancements in North Korea. regrettably, Kim Jong-Il s executive is likely to be the area s so much tough to learn or perhaps see. This Council detailed document, commissioned via CFR s heart for Preventive motion and authored by way of Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit, makes a speciality of how one can deal with one of many primary unknowns: the possibility of a metamorphosis in North Korea s management. The record examines 3 situations: controlled succession, during which the head put up transitions easily; contested succession, during which executive officers or factions struggle for energy after Kim s dying; and failed succession, during which a brand new govt can't cement its legitimacy, potentially resulting in North Korea s cave in. The authors think about the demanding situations that those eventualities may pose starting from securing Pyongyang s nuclear arsenal to delivering humanitarian suggestions and study the pursuits of the USA and others. They then supply concepts for U.S. coverage. specifically, they urge Washington to strengthen its contingency making plans and functions in cooperation with South Korea, Japan, and others, and to construct a discussion with China which could tackle either side s matters. With Kim Jong-Il s well-being doubtful and with a brand new president within the usa, this document couldn't be extra well timed. And with the entire matters at stake at the Korean peninsula, the topic couldn't be extra vital. getting ready for unexpected switch in North Korea is a considerate paintings that offers priceless insights for dealing with a situation bound to come up within the coming months or years.

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Smith Council on Foreign Relations Scott A. S. House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services Thomas L. McNaugher RAND Corporation Don Oberdorfer Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Note: Council Special Reports reflect the judgments and recommendations of the author or authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of members of the advisory committee, whose involvement in no way should be interpreted as an endorsement of the report by either themselves or the organizations with which they are affiliated.

Russia would seek to limit the expansion of other power’s influence, which might come at its own expense in supporting a leading role for South Korea in the North. Like other neighboring countries, Russia would attempt to play a role in the economic development of North Korean territory, if for no other reason than that North Korea adjoins the Russian Far East. -Russia relations. For the most part, the two countries have worked well together on peninsula issues, notably in the Beijing Six-Party Talks.

Establishing an effective disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) program takes on added importance in view of the dangers posed by active resistance. Much has been learned through similar experiences in eastern Europe, Afghanistan, and Iraq. A number of important questions will have to be addressed, including which units if any should be maintained for an interim period to assist with public security or disbanded immediately, whether to retain their existing leadership and weaponry or selectively replace them, and how to find gainful employment for those not retained.

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