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Russia and the New World Disorder by Bobo Lo

By Bobo Lo

Significant 2015 geopolitics textual content (came out the tip of August 2015) facing Russia from US POV. student is out of Brookings Institute. Pdf from educational database. Bookmarks, OCR, and so on added.

Official Summary:

The Russian annexation of Crimea was once one of many nice strategic shocks of the earlier twenty-five years. for lots of within the West, Moscow's activities in early 2014 marked the top of illusions approximately cooperation, and the go back to geopolitical and ideological confrontation.

Russia, for thus lengthy a peripheral presence, had turn into the primary actor in a brand new international drama. during this groundbreaking e-book, popular pupil Bobo Lo analyzes the wider context of the trouble via analyzing the interaction among Russian overseas coverage and an more and more anarchic overseas surroundings. He argues that Moscow's method of local and worldwide affairs displays the stress among very diversified worlds―the perceptual and the actual.

The Kremlin highlights the decline of the West, a resurgent Russia, and the emergence of a brand new multipolar order. yet this idealized view is contradicted by way of an international ailment that demanding situations center assumptions in regards to the dominance of serious powers and the application of army may possibly. Its lesson is that simply these states that embody switch will prosper within the twenty-first century.

A Russia in a position to redefine itself as a contemporary energy may exert a serious effect in lots of parts of foreign politics. yet a Russia that rests on an superseded feel of entitlement may result in its place as one of many primary casualties of world transformation.

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Example text

Similar considerations were in play following the 2014 Maidan revolution. Russia’s strategic interests suffered a major blow with the political demise of Yanukovych, but no less important was Putin’s embarrassment at the unexpected turn of events. In the circumstances, he felt that he had no option—as a man as well as a national leader—but to strike back. His credibility and legitimacy, not to mention his self-esteem, were on the line. There are parallels here with the 2008 Georgia war. In both cases Moscow had substantive policy concerns that contributed to the likelihood of conflict, such as the expansion of Western influence in the post-Soviet space, and its perceived impact on the regional balance of power.

A country in uncertain transition is rarely consistent in the pursuit of objectives, whereas one that enjoys stability and prosperity has a more secure basis on which to develop and implement long-term plans. During the 1990s, political uncertainty, economic crisis, and a loss of national self-confidence resulted in a disorganized and incoherent Russian approach to external relations. The Yeltsin administration veered erratically between seeking integration with the West and pursuing ambitions of strategic balancing and a new multipolar order.

There is a tendency to exaggerate the inexorability of larger trends. Yet if history teaches us anything, it is that nothing is inevitable. Putin’s conduct of foreign policy reveals strong predispositional influences. But it is also the “accidental” and unstable result of contemporary political conditions, economic outcomes, and social pressures. These establish realities that may frequently be short-lived, yet exert a powerful influence on decisionmakers at critical moments. Policymaking Analysts have become so accustomed to using generic terms such as “Russia,” “Moscow,” and the “Putin regime/elite” that they tend to give little thought to what they mean by them.

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