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The Arms Race in the Era of Star Wars by David Carlton, Carlo Schaerf

By David Carlton, Carlo Schaerf

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These are situations of a kind which will recur again and again into the twenty-first century. The world might become less dangerous if statements of essential national interest were laid upon the table and there was a recognition of weaknesses as well as strengths. The Soviet Union may actually be a declining superpower and adopt a more aggressive stance because she feels cornered. 2 The Soviets will surely not become less hostile in the next decades either by being forced down directly or because their defence expenditure has been deliberately forced up to intolerable levels by outside pressures.

Registers of the flow of weapons systems over the world are meticulously made every year (though from official sources only a percentage of the total flow can be discovered) and forecasts are made on the basis of the trends that appear from a careful analysis of these facts, as far as these facts are known and verifiable. Manpower is counted to the last recruit. Predictions about performance in battle, however, are seldom given because such predictions are considered to contain too much speculation.

Our purpose is simply to illustrate how the human mind works. First, problems are defined, and subsequently solutions are sought. From several hypothetical solutions, one of them becomes the final answer. This solution is followed by an operationalisation: the implementation of the solution.

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