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The Seventh Decade : the new shape of nuclear danger by Jonathan Schell

By Jonathan Schell

From the bestselling writer of The destiny of the Earth, a provocative examine the pressing risk posed by means of America's new nuclear policiesWhen the chilly battle ended, many american citizens believed the nuclear hassle had ended with it. in its place, the bomb has moved to the lifeless middle of overseas coverage or even family scandal. From lacking WMDs to the day out of CIA agent Valerie Plame, nuclear concerns are again at the entrance web page. during this provocative booklet, Jonathan Schell argues revolution in nuclear affairs has happened less than the watch of the Bush management, together with a old embody of a first-strike coverage to strive against proliferation. The management has additionally inspired a nuclear renaissance at domestic, with the advance of latest generations of such weaponry. faraway from curtailing nuclear buildup, Schell contends, our radical coverage has provoked proliferation in Iran, North Korea, and somewhere else; exacerbated worldwide trafficking in nuclear guns; and brought the realm into an period of unchecked nuclear terror. Incisive and passionately argued, The 7th Decade bargains crucial perception into what might end up the main unstable decade of the nuclear age.

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Sample text

Two recent studies are especially relevant to this subject. One study conducted by the MIT Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies (WAES) * focuses on the world energy problems with particular attention on the oil supply/demand problem. It observes that world demand for oil will exceed the growth of oil-producing capacity in the 1980s without some relief from alternative energy resources. It concludes, then, that the continuing economic growth of the world will depend on a major transfer of emphasis from the current predominant use of petroleum and natural gas resources to the much greater use of nuclear energy and coal by the year 2000.

And the world, and both for the 1980-2000 period and the 2000-2025 period. , approximately 55% of the oil consumption is currently used for transportation and another 10% for petro­ chemical feedstocks. Substitution of alternative fuels for those uses will be very difficult. A 25% reduction in domestic petroleum use by the year 2000 would seem to be a very ambitious target, but will be assumed in the example. This corresponds to a 10 quad reduction in oil demands relative to a kO quad oil consumption and an 80 quad overall domestic energy consumption expected in 1980.

S. case). S. , the USSR and China, all of which would be inconvenient to western Europe, Japan and the various developing industrial nations where demands would be the greatest. But a growth rate of 6% per year would be extremely difficult to achieve. It would seem, then, the energy supply/demand problem for the world will be significant in the next 20 years even for a cycle-adjusted-logistic energy growth, and will be much more severe assuming a traditional energy growth. And, if the world energy growth is indeed moderated in the 20-year period to 2000, consistent with the CAL projection, then an energy resource supply/demand problem of almost disastrous pro­ portions is simply delayed for the 2000 to 2025 period.

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