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Transitional Energy Policy 1980–2030. Alternative Nuclear by Hugh B. Stewart

By Hugh B. Stewart

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Two recent studies are especially relevant to this subject. One study conducted by the MIT Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies (WAES) * focuses on the world energy problems with particular attention on the oil supply/demand problem. It observes that world demand for oil will exceed the growth of oil-producing capacity in the 1980s without some relief from alternative energy resources. It concludes, then, that the continuing economic growth of the world will depend on a major transfer of emphasis from the current predominant use of petroleum and natural gas resources to the much greater use of nuclear energy and coal by the year 2000.

And the world, and both for the 1980-2000 period and the 2000-2025 period. , approximately 55% of the oil consumption is currently used for transportation and another 10% for petro­ chemical feedstocks. Substitution of alternative fuels for those uses will be very difficult. A 25% reduction in domestic petroleum use by the year 2000 would seem to be a very ambitious target, but will be assumed in the example. This corresponds to a 10 quad reduction in oil demands relative to a kO quad oil consumption and an 80 quad overall domestic energy consumption expected in 1980.

S. case). S. , the USSR and China, all of which would be inconvenient to western Europe, Japan and the various developing industrial nations where demands would be the greatest. But a growth rate of 6% per year would be extremely difficult to achieve. It would seem, then, the energy supply/demand problem for the world will be significant in the next 20 years even for a cycle-adjusted-logistic energy growth, and will be much more severe assuming a traditional energy growth. And, if the world energy growth is indeed moderated in the 20-year period to 2000, consistent with the CAL projection, then an energy resource supply/demand problem of almost disastrous pro­ portions is simply delayed for the 2000 to 2025 period.

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